What is the Retirement Risk Calculator?
The Retirement Risk Calculator checks whether your pension pot is likely to last to your chosen age and highlights the key risks that could derail your plan. It goes beyond simple averages by stress-testing your retirement against market volatility, inflation, longevity and sequence risk.
How the Calculator Works?
This calculator models your retirement year by year in real terms, meaning all figures are adjusted for inflation to reflect today’s spending power.
Each year, withdrawals are taken first and then the remaining pot grows according to your return assumptions. State Pension income is automatically included from the selected age, along with any defined benefit income, rental income or part-time earnings.
The tool then evaluates your plan in three ways:
- A deterministic projection using your expected return
- A stress test where returns are reduced by 2%
- A Monte Carlo simulation with 300 market scenarios to estimate probability of success
It also calculates your withdrawal rate, buffer years and the pot remaining at your target age, helping you understand not just whether your plan works, but how resilient it is.
Enter Your Pot, Income and Ages
Add your pension pot size, planned withdrawals, State Pension and other income sources. Set your retirement age and target life expectancy.
Step Two: Choose Assumptions
Select your equity allocation, expected return and inflation assumptions to reflect your investment strategy.
Step Three: Review Risk and Sustainability
See whether your pot lasts, how much remains at your target age and how vulnerable your plan is under stress and volatility.
Disclaimer: This calculator provides illustrative projections only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment returns, inflation and longevity are uncertain. The Monte Carlo simulation is a model, not a prediction. Always consider professional advice before making financial decisions.
What does retirement mean to you?
Traditional retirement is broken. Understand how our calculator enables you to live a better life now vs later.
Retire from corporate work?
Use the tool to utilise how you can step away from the corporate world and live life on your own terms.
Work less, live more
See how part-time or project-based work can bridge your income gap while giving you more time for life.
Freedom through planning
Understand how your savings, spending and investments can work together to buy back your time.
Test-drive retirement early
Model scenarios that let you experience elements of retirement before fully stepping away.
What is the Retirement Risk Calculator?
It is a UK-focused tool that stress-tests your retirement plan to show how likely your pension pot is to last and which risks could threaten it.
What does “success probability” mean?
It shows the percentage of simulated market scenarios in which your pension pot lasts to your chosen age.
What is sequence risk?
Sequence risk refers to poor investment returns early in retirement, which can significantly damage long-term sustainability even if average returns are acceptable.
Why does the calculator withdraw first, then apply growth?
This reflects real retirement behaviour, where spending happens throughout the year and remaining assets then grow.
What is the stress test?
The stress test assumes returns are 2% lower than expected to show how sensitive your plan is to weaker markets.
What are buffer years?
Buffer years estimate how long your pot would last beyond your target age if returns match your assumptions.
Can it suggest higher spending if I have a large buffer?
Yes. If the model shows a substantial surplus, the calculator may indicate how much extra spending could be sustainable
Does it include the State Pension?
Yes. The default State Pension amount is included from age 67 but can be adjusted.
Are figures shown in today’s money?
Yes. All projections are in real terms, adjusted for inflation.
Can I export the results?
Yes. You can download a CSV file containing your full year-by-year projection and risk metrics.
Is my data stored?
Inputs are stored locally in your browser for convenience. No personal data is sent to a server.